The global economy is headed for a global slowdown, but no recession due in part to continued monetary and fiscal support. This suggests that the bad news has been priced into equities, but continued policy uncertainty calls for cautious optimism. A variety of scenarios could unfold with respect to U.S. policy, some hugely optimistic, others not so much. Our base case is for below trend growth and some higher inflation. Most of the economic pillars behind U.S. exceptionalism remain intact. However, if current policies have a long-term effect, the playing field with the rest of the developed world could become more even. The eurozone and China have been economic underdogs in recent years, but this year they’ve been strongly resilient despite tariff threats. Although ageing populations are an issue around the world, demographics present a larger long-term threat in the Eurozone and China.