While the Biden Administration and their allies in the media are struggling to redefine terms so that recessions are technically impossible, in the real world, things are looking decidedly grim. Not for generations has the Fed had to deal with soaring inflation and contracting GDP. But unlike past episodes, the Fed is facing much deeper challenges with much weaker leadership.
Investors are gleefully unaware of the danger. Expectations are that the inflation dragon will be slayed and roasting on a spit by next summer. At that point, investors fully expect that the Fed will get back into the business of stimulating the economy and monetizing the debt in a backdrop of very mild price increases.
But what if those expectations are wildly off the mark? How will the markets and the government handle the worst bout of stagflation we have ever experienced? It's not going to be pretty, and the time left to prepare financially is getting smaller.